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Corona / Winter mortality rates

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COLUMN:

Every year in the winter period there is a peak of deaths, the majority of which are elderly. Statistics Netherlands calls this phenomenon 'winter mortality'.

Many people die from flu, as well as from flu-related illnesses, the common cold with additional complications such as pneumonia or, for example, fall.

https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2017/10/hogere-sterfte-onder-ouderen-afgelopen-winter

At least more than 40.000 elderly people say goodbye to us every year, as will probably again this year.

Taking into account population growth / baby boomers, this 'winter mortality' forms, in my opinion, the background against which the current corona crisis must be countered.

If the age limit of the youngest corona patients is adhered to, the figures from Statistics Netherlands can easily be used to determine whether more people have actually died than in other years over the same measurement period of 20 weeks, than over this period in other years.

Even if the crisis continues outside this measurement period, it will have clear (and measurable) effects on the winter mortality of 2020/2021.

For example, if there is a disproportionate number of elderly people dying from corona this year, there may be a decline in winter mortality rates in the coming season.

Even if there are a total of 5.000 fewer deaths this year in this 20-week measurement period, we can certainly deduce this.

It may seem obvious to compare flu mortality alone, but reports from Italy indicate that most of the corona patients who died had several underlying conditions.

Whatever these people died of, they do count towards the total mortality seen as corona mortality.

For example, the average annual winter mortality appears as a reliable source of figures and information that can help us gain insight into this crisis that has happened to us.

My explanation is furthermore independent of the degree of contamination or the severity of phenomena that are experienced or not, the reports on this differ considerably.

A question of mine is why we now see images of coffins on the news, the alarmist tone, and why little is put into perspective, while in the near past not so much was dealt with reporting.

During the epidemic of 2018 where, according to Het Dagblad van Het Noorden, more than 8.000 people died, it was certainly not the case

Regards,
Hans vanR.


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